Long Memory in emerging markets: evidence from Chinese Stock Market

Chaoqun Ma a Hongquan Li b,*1 Lin Zou (a College of Business Administration, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R.China, 410082) (b School of Business, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, P.R.China, 410081) Abstract: The notion of long memory, or long-term dependence, has received considerable attention in empirical finance. This paper makes two main contributions. First, the paper aims to provide evidence of nonlinear (long memory) dynamics in the equity market of china. Analysis of market patterns in china market (a typical emerging market) instead of U.S. market (a developed market) will be meaningful because little previous research on the behaviors of emerging markets has been carried out. Secondly, we aim at the comprehensive search of long memory feature in China stock market returns as well as volatility. While many empirical works were done on the detection of long memory in return series, very few investigations focused on the market volatility, though the long-term dependence in volatility may lead to some types of volatility persistence as observed in financial markets and affect volatility forecasts and derivative pricing formulas. So, using modified rescaled range analysis and ARFIMA model testing, this study examined long-term dependence in Chinese stock market returns and volatility. The results show that although the returns themselves contain little serial correlation, the variability of returns has significantly long-term dependence. It would be beneficial to encompass long memory structure to assess the behavior of stock prices and research on financial market theory.